The Rate Of Coal And Gas Power Decline Needed To Limit Climate Change To 1.5°C

Decarbonization of the energy sector is a particularly important strategy to achieve the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which is necessary to prevent the global average temperature from rising above 1.5°C this century. However, few studies have investigated the historical precedents of this sudden and complete transformation—especially the decline of carbon-intensive technologies, which is bound to be accompanied by the widespread adoption of more environmentally friendly technologies.

To explore whether any period of historical fossil fuel decline is similar to the scenarios required to achieve the Paris goals, Jewell and her colleagues, Chalmers’ postdoctoral researcher Vadim Vinichenko, and Austria’s Central European University and Lund’s Professor Aleh Cherp of the University of Sweden identified 147 events in a sample of 105 countries between 1960 and 2018, of which the use of coal, oil or natural gas has fallen by more than 5% within a decade. The rapid decline in the use of fossil fuels has historically been limited to small countries such as Denmark, but this situation has little relevance to the climate scenario. In the climate scenario, the decline should occur in the mainland.

Jewell and colleagues focused their investigations on cases of rapid decline in fossil fuels in larger countries, indicating that there has been a major shift in technology or policy efforts, and control of the size of the energy sector, the growth of electricity demand, and the declining type of fossil fuels Fuel is replaced. They compared these historical fossil fuel decline cases with climate mitigation scenarios using a tool called "feasibility space," which identified the combination of conditions that would make climate action feasible under specific circumstances.

"We were surprised to find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the use of certain fossil fuels, especially oil, in other industrialized countries such as Western Europe and Japan actually fell quite fast," Jewell said. "This is not the time period usually associated with the energy transition, but we are beginning to believe that some important lessons can be learned from it." Historically, the rapid reduction of fossils requires the advancement of competitive technologies and strong incentives to change the energy system (such as avoiding energy Security threats) and effective government agencies to implement the required changes.

She added: “In order to reach the climate goal, the use of coal in the future must be reduced at a speed, we are not surprised, but it still leaves a deep impression on us.” She pointed out that among all fossil fuels, Coal needs to decline the fastest to achieve climate goals, especially in Asia and the OECD, where coal use is concentrated.

In the IPCC 1.5°C compatibility scenario, about half believe that coal in Asia is declining faster than any other scenario. The remaining scenarios, and many scenarios where coal and natural gas are declining in other regions, are the only precedents in which coal, natural gas, or nuclear power is used to replace oil in a smaller power market in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target requires finding a fossil fuel decline mechanism that goes far beyond historical experience or current promises.

In almost all cases in which coal reduction in Asia meets the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is unprecedented in history, or there are rare precedents. More than half of the coal reduction scenarios in OECD countries and more than half of the reduction in natural gas use in reformed economies, the Middle East or Africa will also be unprecedented, or there are rare precedents.

"This not only shows the huge challenge of seeing such a rapid decline in fossil fuels, but also shows the need to learn from the historical lessons of achieving rapid decline across the country," Jewell said.

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